samedi 28 février 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 2 - 6, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:



EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

This market, which was in an equilibrium phase for a few weeks, experienced further weakness last Thursday. Price dropped by 180 pips, closing below the resistance line at 1.1200. While price might saunter into the territory below the resistance line at 1.1100, it may not be able to go down further from there. The outlook for the EUR is bullish for this week, and therefore, price may rally by 100 – 200 pips any day in the week.



USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

One would expect that USDCHF would go northward seriously, just as EURUSD went southward seriously. However, the bullish movement on USDCHF has been limited, for bears are making effort to drag the pair lower. Should price fail to go above the resistance level at 0.9550, it may experience some bearish correction which may take the pre lower towards the support levels at 0.9500 and 0.9450.



GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

The outlook on Cable is bullish and it went upwards at the beginning of last week, reaching the distribution territory at 1.5550. Price failed to close above that distribution territory and got corrected downwards, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5400. There is a possibility that Cable may test the accumulation territories at 1.5300 and 1.5250 this week, thus rending the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market useless.



USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

This currency trading instrument has not moved upwards or downwards in a significant mode so far. Price gallivants between the demand level at 119.00 and the supply level at 120.00. One thing is noteworthy: this instrument may trend higher from here, breaking the aforementioned supply level to the downside, and thus targeting another supply level at 130.00. The outlook for all JPY pairs for this week and for the rest of the month of March 2015, is bullish.



EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

Owing to the recent weakness on EUR, this cross experienced a moderate bearish trend. Price moved downwards but further downwards movement was rejected at the demand zone of 133.50. On Friday, February 27, 2015, price closed at 133.93, making a weak bullish effort. As it has been mentioned before, Yen is supposed to be weak this week (and for the most part of this month). Short trades are not recommended on JPY pairs – including EURJPY. A rally is expected on this cross any day.



This forecast is concluded with the quote below:



“Obviously, I need to do something with regards to the markets. That's my passion. Trading is the best way to be connected with the market…” - Julian Marchese




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Daily Market Analysis from HotForex

Traders Buy the USD as the US Core CPI Came in at +0.2%







After a couple weeks of low volatility the EURUSD moved lower yesterday driven by the US inflation figures. The core CPI (change in the price of consumer goods and services excluding food and energy) rose by 0.2% instead of 0.1% expected by the economists. The CPI that includes the more volatile items (food and energy) fell by 0.7%, most since 1998. This is explained by the substantial fall in Crude Oil prices. The Fed policy makers focus on the Core CPI and therefore markets reacted to the higher than expected figure and bought the dollar as they concluded this will encourage the Fed to raise interest rates this year. However, economists believe that the effects of lower energy prices and a strong dollar will work their way to the Core CPI and cause low reading in the near future.



EURUSD has been really tame since the last time I wrote analysis on it. The weekly picture has not changed much as the downtrend still prevails and there is a shooting star candle indicating that the price will stay in the downtrend. The combination of resistance level at 1.1460 and the 23.6% retracement level held the pair down. The current support and resistance levels nearest to the current price are 1.1098 and 1.1460.







EURUSD, 240 min



Now that the EURUSD has been moving sideways the daily and 4h charts are so similar that I will only comment on the latter. Price is currently resting at a pivot candle high at 1.1203 and the Stochastics are well into the oversold territory while price has moved inside the Bollinger Bands. This suggests that there should be an intraday rebound higher probably to the nearest resistance level at 1.1287. This level coincides with the 50% retracement level drawn from the Wednesday’s high to the latest low yesterday.



Conclusion:



This market is still in a downtrend which means that the support levels are more likely broken and resistance levels honoured. However, the price is now relatively close to the weekly low and sitting at a 4h pivot candle. In addition the price is outside the daily lower Bollinger Bands and the 4h Stochastics are oversold. Therefore a move higher should be in the cards. This should however, be only an intraday rebound as we resistance levels and a sideways range above. Should this move take place I would be looking to benefit from the weekly trend by selling short at the resistance levels, providing the lower time frame charts confirm the idea.





Join me on Live Analysis Webinar on Tuesday 3rd of March at 12:30 pm GMT. Register HERE for FREE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!



Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex




Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.




Best time to Sell Sugar

Best time to sell sugar, it has broken the support and retested it as well on H4 and D1 TF.



Sell Sugar

Target: 13.30

Stop 14.28

May God help us!



Regards,

The FxAgio Team




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vendredi 27 février 2015

ProRealTime

Any experts out there on ProRealTime living in Sydney? I need some assistance .




Cricket World Cup 2015

Surprised there's no World Cup thread.



Aussies v Kiwis is going to be a classic today.



Both PMs in attendance.



When does that happen in sport?




Ray Dalio's Bridgewater fund launching artificial intelligence division

Greetings --



This morning, Bloomberg announced that Ray Dalio's 160 Billion Dollar Bridgewater Fund is beginning an artifical intelligence division.



http://ift.tt/1LSv5MY



My latest book, "Quantitative Technical Analysis," might be helpful to those of you who are interested in learning about and preparing for this field. It contains a step-by-step introduction to artificial intelligence / machine learning / pattern recognition, including ready-to-run ai-based trading systems.



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Best regards,

Howard




AUDNZD alcanza resistencia importante y rebota hacia el alza.

Buen día;



En las últimas semanas hemos visto la continua depreciación del par AUDNZD, donde continúa altamente apreciado del dólar neozelandés.



En la última reunión de política monetaria de Australia, el Banco de Reserva recortó la tasa de interés desde un 2.5% a un 2.25% a raíz de las bajas cifras de inflación. Sin embargo, el Banco de Reserva de Nueva Zelanda no generó ningún tipo de cambio en la política monetaria a pesar de que el IPC dentro de esa economía también ha estado disminuyendo en el último tiempo.



Esto ha generado que la apreciación del dólar neozelandés se mantenga impulsando al par a la baja pero respetando el nivel de soporte en $1.03265. Durante esta semana conoceremos nuevamente la decisión de tasas de interés del Banco de Reserva de Australia, cifra que el mercado espera que se mantenga en 2.25%. Además, conoceremos las cifras de Producto Interno Bruto para Australia donde se espera ver una caída desde el 2.7% a un 2.5%. Esto podría afectar fuertemente al par entregándole alta volatilidad.



Actualmente mantiene un sesgo bajista al encontrarse por debajo de los distintos indicadores técnicos (MVA50, MVA100, MVA200 diarias y el Ichimoku) con una resistencia en $1.03783 (pivote semanal) y con un soporte en $1.03265 (S1 semanal). De continuar con los movimientos bajistas, el instrumento podría ir a buscar el próximo nivel de soporte en $1.03113 (S1 diario). En el escenario de ver correcciones a las caídas, el instrumento podría ir a buscar la resistencia y en el escenario de romperla, podría ir en búsqueda del siguiente nivel en $1.04092 (R1 diaria).



Buen Trading.




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HotForex: New market analysis services.

HotForex: New market analysis services.









Dear Client,



We are excited to announce the launch of our upgraded Daily Market Analysis service that will keep you up-to-date with the latest from the markets!



Be the first to read in depth daily market analysis articles and frequent market bulletins prepared by HotForex Chief Market Analyst, Janne Muta:



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Plus, you can also join Janne at his LIVE market analysis and trading webinars. As always, he will be happy to answer your questions in the Q&A session at the end of each webinar. Remember, HotForex webinars are absolutely free of charge, so sign up now!





About Janne Muta



Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator. Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne's technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.



If you have any questions, comments or feedback, please do not hesitate to contact our dedicated Customer Support Team via myHotForex or live chat.



Best Regards,



HotForex Support Team.




EUR/USD: Rebota en soporte sobre los 1.1185 y entra a rango inferior

Buenas Tardes:



El dólar hace una ligera tregua con el euro y cede terreno luego de rebotar en un soporte relevante en los 1.1185. A corto plazo el precio encuentra una 1.1235 que de romperlo pasaría a buscar el techo del rango inferior en torno a los 1.1318 correspondientes a la resistencia facilitada por nuestros analistas.



Alternativamente, el precio podría ir a buscar probar nuevamente el soporte que de romperlo tendría una vía para ir a buscar nuevos mínimos en 1.0970 como segundo piso.

Técnicamente el instrumento se encuentra en un sesgo bajista y debería estar dispuesto a buscar niveles inferiores pero en estos momentos parece que primero se afianzará en un rango inferior antes de continuar la embestida a la baja.



Saludos :eek:




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Today's Live Trade Example!



Getting too close to the American economic news events shortly and we are closing down our open trades to reduce risk. The market will continue to fall but its better to take profit because you can, not because you have too!







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jeudi 26 février 2015

Simon Marais Rest In Peace

Still young at 50.



http://ift.tt/1AxNcnE



For those who know a lot about him, please leave tributes. I know we still have much to learn from him.




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Nuevos rebotes del oro a la vista: compramos en niveles actuales

Buen día;



El oro negocia actualmente en una formación del canal bajista y continúa con presión a medio plazo. No obstante, un par de formaciones se han desarrollado esta semana, que apuntan a una alta posibilidad de un retroceso superior.



La formación de doble suelo (1.190 dólares por onza) está apoyado por formaciones de velas alcistas consecutivas. La formación de martillo alcista y un martillo invertido indica que los compradores se están acumulando en estos bajos niveles.



Tenemos el soporte de la tendencia alcista de medio plazo y una reacción desde la base desde el canal de tendencia bajista ofreciendo un soporte adicional. El indicador ADX de corto plazo también ha activado nuestra señal de compra.



Vamos a comprar en los niveles actuales y en caídas hacia zonas de 1.200 dólares por onza; con stop en 1.190; para ir a buscar el objetivo 1.235 o 1.250



Buen Trading.




EUR/GBP: Inicia consolidación en nuevo rango inferior

Buenas Tardes:



La libra esterlina mantiene su arremetida contra el euro y continúa la presión bajista para el par. En el mediano plazo el soporte objetivo se mantiene en los 0.7290 correspondiente al 50% de la expansión del Fibonacci como punto previo antes de continuar hasta los 0.7219 correspondientes al 61.8% del Fib. Alternativamente, si el precio recupera y logra romper el techo a corto plazo en los 0.7336 correspondientes al S1 semanal pasaría a buscar la siguiente resistencia mencionada.



Saludos :eek:




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STOP BEING ON THE WRONG SIDE OF MARKET MOVES! THIS IS HOW!

I'm going to be posting daily Alerts to help Members of EarnForex Make more trades, with less losses. below is now my first post, i hope my trade info helps...



New Professional Daily Trade Alerts EXACT ENTRY DETAILS EUR/JPY



Markets are range bound this session; hopefully we can find some new opportunity in the next session.









If you need us to provide and post a free custom analysis on any pair just send me a pm on the pair you would like a report on and i will post it....




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mercredi 25 février 2015

Amibroker Portfolio Management

Hi, I was wondering if someone can point me in the right direction.



I have recently started using Amibroker to help develop and test a trading system, which is proving to be very useful!



However I am correct in thinking that its not very good at actually managing a portfolio, or am I over looking an option?



I have found the "New Account" function, but frankly that didn't seem much use.



What I would like is to be able to scan the market for buy/sell triggers (no problem), but then using the system code I have written:



>Tell me position size (I can work around this by running a 1 day backtest when a buy signal is generated);

>Stop loss level;

>Track open positions, and adapt based on changes to the underlying system logic.



I can create an excel spreadsheet to do this but it seems like such a waste of time when I already have the logic in Amibroker AFL and the software can obviously compute it like it does when backtesting.





Am I being a muppet, or does it not actually do what I want in this area?




EUR/JPY ATENTOS....QUE TENDENCIA TOMARA?

Este par sigue operando dentro de zona neutral alrededor del nivel de pivote semanal en 134.43, la tendencia sigue siendo alcista, los niveles de soporte del par están en 134.21 y 133.55 mientras que las resistencias se ubican en 136.90 / 137.25 y 137.64. Si el par viola el nivel de 135.88 será un indicador de que el par reanudara su tendencia alcista, lo más apropiado será esperar una ruptura impulsiva por arriba de este nivel.




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El GBP/USD, en máximos de casi 2 meses tras los positivos datos del Reino Unido

Buen día;



La libra registró máximos de casi dos meses con respecto al dólar este miércoles tras conocerse que las concesiones de préstamos hipotecarios del Reino Unido aumentaron más de lo previsto el mes pasado; las declaraciones de la presidenta de la Reserva Federal, Janet Yellen, lastraban el billete verde.



El par GBP/USD alcanzó el nivel de 1,5539 durante la mañana de la jornada de negociación en Europa, su cota más alta desde el 2 de enero; posteriormente, el par se consolidó en 1,5509, con un avance del 0,36%.

Era posible que el cruce encontrara un soporte en 1,5401, el mínimo este martes, y una resistencia en 1,5586, el máximo alcanzado el 2 de enero.



Buen Trading.




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Queensland financial adviser banned for recommending options trading to 152 clients

Hi All,



Hot off the press today (ASIC media release):





ASIC has banned Mr David Neil Wilkins, of Springwood, Queensland from providing financial services for five years.



Mr Wilkins was banned after ASIC found he had engaged in misleading conduct and provided inappropriate advice.



At the time of the misconduct, Mr Wilkins was an authorised representative of RBS Morgans Ltd, Romad Financial Services Pty Ltd and later, MDS Financial Planning Pty Ltd. During this time, he offered his ‘Options Strategy’ to at least 152 clients. The ‘Options Strategy’ involved Mr Wilkins recommending to his clients that they engage in options trading based on recommendations sent by him or his company.



An ASIC investigation found that between September 2010 and May 2012, Mr Wilkins did not comply with financial services laws as he:



• engaged in conduct regarding a financial product or a financial service that was misleading or likely to mislead by representing that options trading carried little to no risk, and



• provided inappropriate advice to clients about trading in options and failed to make appropriate inquiries about the relevant personal circumstances of those clients.



Deputy Chairman Peter Kell said, ‘Trading in options is complex, can be very risky and is not appropriate for all clients. ASIC will act to remove those advisers from the industry who fail in their obligations to provide appropriate advice.’





For full details, just go to the "Media releases" section of the ASIC's home page.



-IG




¿El trading más rentable en USDJPY? vender en rebotes

Buenas Tardes:



El mercado ha estado negociando de forma lateral en la media móvil de 50 sesiones, pero una ruptura al alza el martes se ha encontrado con los vendedores desde niveles por debajo de 120,00. El pullback es negativo, y aunque las señales en general no son fuertes, apuntan a vender en repuntes en el USDJPY.



Parámetros de la estrategia:

Entrada: Vendemos a mercado y 118,90, justo por debajo de los máximos de Asia.

Stop: 119,30.



Objetivos: 117,90, tendencia alcista diaria y 117,00, base del 5 de febrero.



Saludos :eek:




The New guy on the block

Hello guys,

My name is Nick I'm new to all this business of Forex trading.

I heard from some friends that they made some good money from Forex and I decided to try also.

I have a few hundred pounds that I put a side to try this thing.

I can say with certainty that I do not know anything about Forex trading. And after reading about it online I think I understand even less.

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In what should I trade? Forex? Which currencies are the most safe to trade in ?

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I don't want to just flush my money down the toilet...

looking forward to get to know you guys and start making money...



Thank you all, Nick




mardi 24 février 2015

ROC Oil Company Acquisition - What happened to my stocks?

Hey ASF'ers,



I bought ROC Oil a while back when it was below 30c. I've been on holidays overseas for over 3 months and returned to find it's been acquired by Fosun International. The stock has apparently been removed from the ASX and I'm just wondering WTF has happened to my stocks that I own. I've spent over an hour on the phone with IB and the woman wasn't able to help much at all. She's going to get back to me on what's going on.



In my portfolio, it shows ROC.AUD which is odd, none of the other stocks I own have that suffix. I've tried closing the whole position but keep getting a "No trading permissions" error. I of course have trade permissions for Aussie stocks.



Does anyone know what's going on? What happens to my position? I thought I'd either be paid out or given stocks in the acquiring company. There's nothing in my Corporate Actions list either, which I assume I missed because I was away. Any insight would be much appreciated.



Cheers




Las señales del AUDUSD apuntan a la baja: vendemos a mercado

Buen día;



Hemos visto dos rebotes de "gato muerto" desde los mínimos de 5 años y medio de este mes, destacando el sentimiento bajista y las pérdidas iniciales de esta semana apuntan a probar niveles mínimos de 0,7626 o incluso el objetivo de la Reserva del Banco de Australia en 0,7500.

Dejaríamos margen para vender en repuntes intradía y bajar el nivel de stop hacia la entrada una vez que el par ha alcanzado el primer objetivo.



Por lo tanto vendemos a mercado y 0,7795, con stop en 0,7825 y objetivo en 0,7724 mínimo del 13 de febrero y zonas de 0,7644, la base de dos semanas.



Buen Trading.




La libra se prepara para los fundamentales de USA

Hola amigos, buenas tardes;

Desde inicios de esta semana la libra ha logrado permanecer por sobre la marca psicológica de los 1.5400, formando un rango lateral a la espera de fundamentales para USA y UK esta semana.



Actualmente la paridad ha acotado el movimiento a la espera de conocer PMIs para Estados Unidos hoy. El momemtum es alcista, con una resistencia en 1.5479. En la eventualidad de tener una lectura pesimista para la economía norteamericana, podría darse un rompimiento de este nivel buscando el próximo objetivo alcista en 1.5507 (R1 Pivot diario) para luego ir en busca de una fuerte resistencia en 1.5562 (R2 Pivot semanal – R1 Pivot diario). En extensión un freno al alza podría ser el 1.56 (Nivel psicológico – MVA100 D1). En el escenario alternativo, noticias positivas, presionaría al GBP/USD a la baja, un primer soporte está en torno a 1.5393 (Pivot semanal) en el caso de la continuidad del movimiento, un próximo objetivo estaría en 1.5346 (Tenkan Sen) y en extension el 1.5312 podría ser un piso fuerte (S1 Pivot semanal – MVA50 D1).



Un Saludo :eek:




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Tony Abbott is Gorne

As a quick search will realise, I spent some time and 98 petrol ensuring that Tony Abbott would be elected as Liberal Leader in the dark days of ALP power.



I am now calling for Tony Abbott to relinquish the leadership of the Liberal Party and step down as PM.



He has not performed well as PM, he was a brilliant Opposition Leader.



I am driving tonight to Canberra, in the Arnage, to influence the movement of self interest and votes to a new PM.



I should be at the NSW Border by sunset tomorrow.



I will check on your opinions on a suitable successor then.



gg




lundi 23 février 2015

ASIC takes action on deficient advice on complex structured investment products

Hi All,



For those interested, the following is an extract of a media release that has just been published by ASIC today:



ASIC takes action on deficient advice on complex structured investment products



ASIC concerns about financial advice relating to complex products has led to 10 licensees undertaking corrective action.



ASIC released a report in December 2013 which looked at advice provided by 10 licensees in relation to retail structured products. These are investments whose value is based on the movement of underlying assets such as a share index, generally using derivatives arrangements. The report also looked at advice on limited recourse (or 'protected') loans that are used to buy shares.



ASIC's report had a particular focus on structured products described as 'capital protected' or 'capital guaranteed' because these labels tend to attract consumers who are after lower risk products. However, the complex nature of these products meant that some consumers did not understand what, if anything, was protected. Too often advisers promoting these products were not adequately considering the consumer's needs and circumstances.



For full details, just go to the "Media releases" section of the ASIC's home page.



-IG




1049% Capital Gain 2014

This website outlines a trading strategy that I use to trade Forex, Metals, and other leveraged derivatives. This means you can start with a tiny sum of capital and grow it quickly into a substantial income...without having to spend years slaving away. Did you know, for instance, that if you started with $300 and earned 100% plus each month, you would reach $9,600 monthly income within 4 months?



Learn More




Forex and the milk money

Far too many new traders put too much capital at risk before they have any idea what they are doing. Trading the milk money. Read about it here http://ift.tt/1zpICZp

While your there see how you can get your trading reviewed and tips for doing better from market professionals.




New version of Pip-Hunter expert advisor





Hunter Expert Advisor Specification:

Platform Metatrader 4

Trading Pair EUR/USD

Time Frame M30

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EUR/USD: Inicia semana con presión en soporte clave en 1.1276

Buen día;



El dólar gana terreno en contra del euro y presiona al precio en contra del psicológico de los 1.1300. A corto plazo, el soporte relevante está en el 1.1276.

En este sentido de romper el piso el precio podría empujar sus caídas hasta los 1.1200 nivel psicológico importante. Alternativamente, el precio si rebota en el soporte, podría ir a buscar la resistencia más próxima en los 1.1533.



Técnicamente el instrumento se encuentra en un sesgo bajista y debería estar dispuesto a buscar niveles inferiores y en este momento se enfrenta a un importante piso, si nos fijamos en el gráfico semanal con un RSI encontraremos una divergencia positiva que podría representar un rebote antes de continuar con los cortos.



Buen Trading.




USD/JPY: Se mantiene indeciso en los 119.00

Buenas Tardes:



El dólar norteamericano no se pone de acuerdo con el yen para definir un sesgo claro, en estos momentos el precio se mantiene indeciso sobre su posición en el psicológico de los 119.00. A corto plazo el precio tiene un sesgo alcista y presenta una resistencia en los 120.82 que son los máximos de diciembre 23 de 2014, de llegar a romperlo el precio iría a buscar el máximos de 2014 en 121.91. Alternativamente, el precio podría romper el soporte que está ubicado en los 118.00 y retornar a un rango inferior en donde el precio se ha estado cómodo durante el último mes.



La indecisión en este par es un indicador de que hay muchos flujos saliendo de pares débiles como el euro y refugiándose en la moneda nipona y el dólar norteamericano. Lo cual luego se podría traducir en un aumento de volatilidad inesperado pues ahora estarían en un proceso de entrada de posiciones, antes de cerrarlas.



Saludos :eek:




Creating a 32 bit "C" library of TA functions for use with other software

Thought I'd start a new thread on TA (Technical Analysis) functions written in "C" that can be used by other 32 bit software. The 32 bit software I hopefully demonstrate in later posts are 32 bit Perl, Excel 2003 and Metatrader 4, but probably could be extended to say 32 bit versions of Python, Ruby, Maple, Mathematica, R, Metastock, Amibroker, MathLab, WealthLab etc. Creating a library is useful because you should expect the same output results given the same input data for say a moving average no matter what software calls your functions.



What I've done is written some basic moving average "C" code (SMA,EMA,SMMA,LWMA) using the free codeblocks IDE (Integrated Development Environment) that comes with the free C/C++ compiler and used this for my library. In later posts, I explain in detail, the steps involved in creating libraries for use with other software. These steps are:



1) Install codeblocks IDE with free C/C++ compiler

2) Start a new project and compile "C" files written by me to create a 32 bit "C" static link library called "libtal.a"

3) Create a "C++" test project (console application) with "main.cpp" that links to the library functions created in "libtal.a"

4) Create a 32 bit Windows DLL (dynamic link library) that links to the library functions created in "libtal.a"

5) Test 32 bit Windows DLL with 32 bit software packages Perl and Excel 2003.

6) Test 32 bit Windows DLL with MT4 (Metatrader 4).



Special Note: All work done in the 6 steps described above was carried out on a 32 bit Windows XP platform.



1) Installing codeblocks IDE with free C/C++ compiler



To start off with, you will need to go to the following website



http://ift.tt/ZIEhPE



Navigate to downloads/binaries and download the latest codeblocks with mingw. As of 23/Feb/2015, the latest is 13.12 and this is the one I'll be using for this thread. So now we download the file "codeblocks-13.12mingw-setup.exe" and install codeblocks. This installation contains both the IDE and the free 32 bit C/C++ compiler. The 32 bit C/C++ compiler is what is needed to compile my project code.



When you have successfully installed codeblocks, it should look something like this when you open it up:



01_01_CB_Inst.PNG


Attached Images






About Justforex

Welcome to JustForex



Why Justforex

Types of Accounts for Everyone's Needs




Having considered all the preferences and opportunities of traders, we have created types of accounts, such as Classic, NDD and ECN.



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scalping, news trading and expert advisors are allowed.




About JustForex

JustForex is a brand of IPCTrade Inc, the activity of which is providing online trading services on the Forex market and an opportunity for traders with different trading experience to earn income by trading financial instruments. IPCTrade Inc. is authorized and regulated by the Belize International Financial Services Commission (license no. IFSC/60/241/TS/14). On the regulator's website IPCTrade Inc is number 26 in the List of Licensed Service Providers at this page. The company is specializing in trading the financial instruments of the Forex market, commodity-based derivative instruments and other securities.




looking for partner use my ea

hi

i bought EA before two month ago at very high price from hotblaster.com

i attach it my small account and it give nice performance.(see the attachment)



i want to make money quickly, but i have small capital now

i like to share my ea with you who have large capital on trading account.

agreement should be around 50% profit share or something like that




Attached Files





File Type: htm Statement.htm (282.0 KB)






First time trader - which broker

Hi



I am UK based and I am looking to start trading on the forex.



I have £500-1000 to start and I am looking for a broker which meets the following:



- regulated, preferably by the FCA UK

- offers micro and mini accounts

- offers mt4 platform

- ive read dont look for brokers that offer more than 50:1 leverage?



I appreciate all advice. Ive just read about alpari going bankrupt which has worried me a little as that was one id read was good!



Thank you




dimanche 22 février 2015

Amibroker as a fundamental analysis development tool - any developers?

The more I'm searching for a stock screener (for specific data manipulative requirements) the more it looks if it doesn't exist in the public domain. The quickest way to get something off the ground is to use AmiBroker which I read is a professional, powerful, comprehensive trading system development platform.



a. While it is mainly used for technical analysis can anyone indicate why it wont be suitable for fundamental analysis?

b. Any development or scripts need to be tested vigorously. It also appears from readings if Amibroker's cutting edge charting and graphics, and fast, flexible and powerful portfolio-level backtesting, optimization, and automated walk forward validation will be more than enough.

c. Do you know of any existing groups or forums that attempted this successfully and that we can perhaps join?

d. Will it be a good idea to use a development domain like SourceForge or Github to host artifacts, databasis, code and script management and central communications with feedback to this forum?

e. Anyone with the time, skills, tenacity and energy that will be interested in driving such efforts?

f. Who will be interested in active participation?



The objective is to develop a system based on a scientific approach, that will help long term investors identify profitable opportunities to buy and sell.




Put Options as a Hedging Stategy

I was debating whether to post this in the Derivatives section or here but in the end felt that my level was very basic.



I recently went through the ASX's online modules on options after some inspiration from Sir O's beginner's thread.



I would like to use put option's as a hedging strategy in times when I believe it to be a bear market (not right now). I have no desire to use it as means to any other strategies at the moment.



I currently have deployed my small capital to certain blue chips at the end of last year and they have run hard. Right now, I'm going to ride out the good times but I'm trying to devise way to protect my profits when the market turns.



I would like to outline my basic strategy and I would appreciate it if the more experienced members could help me critique it.


  1. Identify when I feel the market will be bearish.

  2. Purchase a long-dated ATM put option

  3. Exercise, sell, or allow to expire worthless.








The alternative would be just to sell out of my positions but I feel that the CGT liabilities, loss of dividends, and loss of exposure to risign share prices are all factors which push me towards a put option stategy. One the other hand, the brokerage fees associated with trading and exercising options might not be worth it?



What do you all think about that very simple stategy? Is simply closing your position much better?



Thanks :)




samedi 21 février 2015

Charting Forex

G'day all,



Couldn't find a thread which was strictly Technical Analysis for Forex, hopefully I haven't missed it.



Thought I would share my long term view of the Euro on a monthly chart showing the long term falling channel in which it has been traveling for a long time. It looks as though it has hit the bottom support line of the channel and may well be on its way up. The RSI is showing it as being oversold.



Cheers Ann


Attached Images






Google Trend Input/Output

CALLING GURU CODERS:



This is what I want to do:



I want to enter a strings like: "Greece Varoufakis Idiot"; or

a list of strings representing separate search terms like: "Greece", "Varoufakis", "Idiot"



...into Google Trends. Then I want the output scraped out and placed into something I can use.



Ultimately, I want this in MatLab so I can process it via AI algo. In the ideal, I want to ping it via APL from within Matlab.



If all I manage to do is create a VBA script to pull it out into excel, that would be sufficiently awesome.



Has anyone got VBA code or, even better, MatLab Code that allows me to do this?



Would be much obliged if someone has the script available. It's got to be a cinch for someone out there. TIA.




Specific Balance Sheet parameters used for fundamental analysis

There are hundreds of financial ratio and balance sheet parameters available from a company's annual report. Surely some are more important than others. Try finding them and searching through many threads I mainly noticed broad statements with some exceptions. From another thread:




Quote:




Originally Posted by McLovin View Post

For the business: Good balance sheet (ratio analysis), good margins, low revenue concentration, high return on equity, low CAPEX, strong free cash flow. Ideally I also like companies that have a high % of recurring revenue. And most importantly, a business I can understand.



For the share: Margin of safety.




a. Which ones do you prefer to use and are most important to you?

b. How many parameters do you use at ones?

c. What do you use as a benchmark to determine if the parameter is good or bad

d. Have you developed a grading system that incorporates them together as your 'first-cut' list




Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 23 - 27, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:



EURUSD

Dominant bias: Neutral

This market is not currently favorable for swing trading, except intraday trading or scalping. This is because the market has not moved protractedly in a vivid direction for weeks. There is a support line at 1.1300 and a resistance line at 1.1450, and a break below that support line or that resistance line would determine the next direction of the market, especially when price closes below the support line at 1.1300 or closes above the resistance line at 1.1450. A close above the resistance line at 1.1450 is more probable because there is a possibility that EUR would rally this week.



USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

The movement on this pair is more conspicuous than the movement on EURUSD. In order to see what this market is doing more clearly, it is better to use timeframes that are smaller than the daily chart and the 4-hour chart, like the hourly chart or the 30-minute chart. The bias on USDCHF is bullish in the near-term and price moved upwards by 200 pips last week, reaching the resistance level at 0.9500. From that resistance level, price experienced some bearish retracement of 140 pips, making it to close below the resistance level at 0.9400. Further southward correction could make the near-term bias on this pair turn bearish.



GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

Although the bias on the Cable is still bullish, we may see some weakness in this currency trading instrument this week. On Friday, February 20, 2015, price closed at 1.5396, leaving a lower high formation in the market. While price may reach the distribution territory at 1.5500, the northward movement can be limited this week because a possibility of downward movement is greater.



USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

This market has not moved significantly recently and therefore, price is in an equilibrium phase; being swayed by alternating buying and selling pressure, which is invariably transitory. The demand zone at 118.00 remains a good challenge to southward attempt and there is a possibility that the market can go above the supply level at 120.00.



EURJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

This cross is also in an equilibrium phase. A price plunge on Friday was quickly followed by an ensuing rally. Price may continue going upward this week or next week, and a movement above the supply zone at 136.50 would result in a bullish Confirmation Pattern.



This forecast is concluded with the quote below:





“Few financial markets generate as much excitement and profitability as the Forex market does.” – Cornelius Lukas




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Vladimir Ribakov is a hedge fund trader who is giving his Forex Trend Directive Report giving away FREE. Forex Trend Directive is a very low risk and high reward system. You can download the Forex Trend Directive Report PDF plus the MT4 Chart Template Installer FREE . Read the PDF and you will be amazed to see how this simple system helps you find low risk entries with a very high reward/risk ratio.




EA Robot: Averages + 423 Pips Per Week!

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vendredi 20 février 2015

Any one making money off ebay?

Any one here who makes money selling merchandise off ebay. My cousin thinks its very possible and he wants to get some income from selling stuff off ebay. Is it possible to make a couple hundred dollars a week with a small initial capital without putting a great deal of effort in (maybe 1-2 hours a day).



DH7




Grid EA performance.

since there's no EA section, I think this the closest as right place to share trading result.

I intend to share this EA with everyone since I also got this EA at no cost.

check the attachment, unpack the zip file, and put the ex4 file on your mql folder.



as today ea been run for 10 days (run at vps).





as overall result :





EA setting are by default, except for lost size : 0.01, and multi lot factor I use 1.2. use 4 major pair, and here's current active trade.





well keep update ea performance at daily basis, since this sub forum are all about trading journal.




Attached Files





File Type: zip MGTCE_1.1.zip (534.3 KB)






Los riesgos que enfrentará el euro ante las negociaciones griegas

Buen día;



En la actualización sobre el mercado de divisas hoy, vamos a analizar cómo el apetito del riesgo y los pares del euro serán afectados por los riesgos ad hoc de los próximos acontecimientos que veremos entre las negociaciones entre Grecia y la Unión Europea.



El par euro/yen (EURJPY) parece técnicamente "feo" si nos acercamos a los niveles actuales, aunque los riesgos relacionados con Grecia podrían empujar a la acción en cualquier dirección. Tenemos el desafortunado riesgo del hueco abierto el lunes, especialmente si hablamos de una ruptura del mismo.



EUR/USD: atentos al abandono de los 1,1267

El EUR/USD continúa consolidando niveles dentro de su tendencia bajista principal. Tras los descensos de ayer jueves y hoy viernes estaremos muy atentos al abandono de los 1,1267 euros ya que nos mostraría el final del movimiento lateral y la continuación de los descensos hasta los mínimos anuales que presenta en los 1,1096. Seguimos pensando en una caída hasta el nivel de la paridad.



Buen Trading.




En una sesión técnica el AUD/USD testea importante resistencia ¿Pullback o breakout?

Buenas Tardes:



En una jornada bastante tranquila en términos fundamentales, y luego de que la paridad AUD/USD escalara durante la sesión overnight encontrando techo en una resistencia sólida 0.7843 (R1 Pivot semanal – R1 Pivot diario). El mercado espera expectante la determinación que posiblemente tomaría el Eurogrupo en una reunión extraordinaria el día hoy donde se encontrarán los ministros de finanzas del euro para determinar el futuro de Grecia.



Desde un punto de vista técnico el instrumento ha respetado la formación de un triángulo ascendente, actualmente encontrándose en la base superior, resistencia desde la cual podría tomar alguna determinación. En un escenario principal en línea con el sesgo bajista del instrumento, un posible pullback desde el nivel actual tendría como primer objetivo el nivel psicológico de los 0.7800 (Pivot diario), para luego y confirmando el rompimiento del triángulo acercarse al próximo soporte en 0.7743 (Pivot semanal – Tenkan Sen) y en extensión se encontraría latente el próximo soporte psicológico 0.7700. El oscilador CCI indica sobrecompra y espera a la señal. En un escenario alternativo ante la posibilidad de un breakout alcista el AUD/USD se enfrentaría al primer objetivo en 0.7900 (Nivel psicológico) para luego recuperar la convergencia técnica en 0.7940 (R2 Pivot Semanal – Kijun Sen) y en extensión la continuidad del momentum expondría a la paridad a recuperar los 0.8000.



Saludos :eek:




Placing a trade question

Hi all,

Still learning the ropes but i placed an order for $1000 worth of shares on Wed around 3.45pm and had it to expire for that day at a price a bit lower than what the current bid was. The trade did not go through and glad it didn't as i changed my mind and wanted to invest a lot more than $1000. The next day i seen that my order was executed and was crossed trade. So now if i want to buy more shares that means i will be out another $20 for the trade (through commsec). Am i missing something here? I mean i had it at the price i wanted to buy the shares for only good for the day? Did commsec neglect my instructions or am i missing something?




jeudi 19 février 2015

SMSF for trading stocks

If you trade many stocks eg. daytrading via a SMSF, does the Audit fees become completely ridiculous because they will need to audit each trade? I believe auditors charge you depending on how many transactions your SMSF does.




March Stock Tipping Competition Entry Thread!

Good afternoon everyone, and welcome to the March 2015 stock tipping competition entry thread! :)



This month's competition is proudly sponsored by Pepperstone - The World's Leading Forex Broker.



Pepperstone is an Online Forex (FX) Trading Broker, providing traders across the globe with cutting edge forex trading technology to offer unmatched top tier liquidity, institutional grade spreads and the security of tight financial regulation. Pepperstone offers online forex trading through multiple forex trading platforms, including Metatrader 4, Webtrader and Apps for iPhone and Android.



Get started today and get up to $600 free brokerage!



A quick recap of the rules for those not familiar with them:



1. You MUST have a minimum of 10 posts to enter.



2. Each entrant may choose one ASX listed stock. Options, warrants and deferred settlement shares are not permitted.



3. Stocks with a price of less than $0.01 are ineligible for the competition, as are stocks that are currently suspended from trading.



4. The winner is the entrant whose selected stock performs the best in percentage terms between March 1 and March 31.



5. The maximum number of entrants in the competition is 100.




The competition winner will receive $100. The second placegetter will win $50 and the third placegetter $25.



You have until midnight on Saturday, February 28 to enter. However, in practice, entries can be submitted until this thread is closed. No entries submitted after that can be accepted for any reason.



Those who qualify, please post your entries in this thread. Remember, once you have selected your stock, you CANNOT change it for any reason. Also, you must be qualified when you enter.



Each month we usually have some members who do not qualify for the competition but enter anyway. If someone who has selected a stock hasn't yet qualified for the competition, their stock is officially up for grabs! Just mention it when you post your entry.



Best of luck to all entrants! :D



Please don't forget to post a brief reason explaining why you chose your competition entry. One or two sentences is enough (feel free to add a chart if your reason is TA based). If your entry is the same as the previous month and the reason for choosing it is the same then feel free to just post the same explanation again. Thank you!




Technical VS Fundamental Analysis. Who wins?

I have been observing one thing. Most traders seem to pay more attention to technical analysis than fundamental analysis. Is there are reason behind this? I have my observations and will share them later but I would want to know why you guys think this is so. Any thoughts and ideas? Please share them.




Qld cyclone

I'm sure we are all keeping our fingers crossed for our members in the path of this cyclone.



Julia, noco, Joe, Garpal and others, I hope you are battened down and lying low and good luck.




Es hora de estar largos en el oro con objetivo en 1.233 dólares

Buen día;



Hoy estoy pendiente del oro spot. No es el producto que suelo negociar normalmente, pero hoy parece ofrecer un buen ratio riesgo/beneficio.



Si nos fijamos en los valores e índices europeos, parecen haber terminado la formación de cuña, por lo que creemos que una ruptura bajista podría ser impulsiva. Si se refleja esta tendencia negativa sobre el oro, el movimiento alcista podría/debería también ser agresivo.



El oro ha realizado un movimiento bajista (común en las secuencias correctivas) desde los máximos en 1.307 dólares por onza (22 de enero). No obstante, las pérdidas de ayer fueron fuertemente corregidas en el 61,8% del nivel de pullback de 1.198 dólares y el martillo alcista destacado en el gráfico diario. Esto se ha visto también como compras en caídas por debajo de la tendencia de mínimos crecientes, lo que no suele ser suficiente para hacer una compra agresiva.



Vamos a poner largos en 1.216 y compraríamos además en caídas hacia zonas de 1.213 dólares. El stop = 1.208 y objetivos = 1.233-35



Buen Trading.




USD/JPY: El par quiere retornar por debajo de soporte-resistencia importante

Buenas Tardes:



El dólar norteamericano pierde el terreno ganado recientemente en contra del yen y la indecisión en este par se acentúa aún más ya que el precio está teniendo dificultad para mantenerse en el rango superior sobre los 119.00. A corto plazo, el precio se enfrenta al 118.86 importante punto de soporte-resistencia que de romperlo podría ir a buscar los 119.31 correspondiente al 23.6% del Fib como punto mínimo para poder pensar en una mayor recuperación. Alternativamente, si el precio decide cerrar por debajo de los 118.86 el precio podría ir a buscar niveles que orbiten los 118.00.



Técnicamente el instrumento se encuentra en sesgo alcista y técnicamente muestra una configuración que podría convertirse en compradora, pero debido a la incertidumbre que acecha al mercado con relación a Grecia, lo que puede dañar rápidamente esta lectura, nos mantendremos a un lado.



Saludos :eek:




My stock investing journey (leyy)

Hello everyone,



Firstly, I would like to thank the ASF community and its members for the invaluable wealth of knowledge this forum has provided to me and I am sure to many others. I have been a long time lurker and not so much of a regular poster. But I thought I would share with the community my stock investing journey to date and give a little bit back to ASF. I guess the main reason for this thread is to motivate myself to trade more actively, continue to learn and take on-board feedback/criticism from the ASF community and hopefully teach a thing or two to the beginners.



Firstly a bit about my current situation:



Age: 31

Dependants: Wife (no kids yet, looking to family plan in 2-3 years)

Assets: Shares $150k, SMSF: $165k, PPOR: $780k, Offset acc: $40k

Liabilities: $520k (mortgage PPOR), $30k vehicle finance (0% interest 4 years)

Income: $200k + pa (gross, pre-tax)

Wife income: nil, stopped working and she has invested $100,000 on a small business (commercial lease has started this month)



Spending Habits/Work/Lifestyle: I spend long hours at work average 10-12 hour a days at work during business hours. My job is unrelated to stock investing/trading more in operations/general management. When I am at work I have no free time to watch/monitor the stock market, so I normally do this in the evening/weekends. However, I am very passionate about investing in stocks and enjoy it. We live a very comfortable lifestyle and spend/buy/travel/eat what we want. Really looking to cut back on spending and save more money. Any excess income will be parked in the offset account.



Financial goals for 2015: Purchase 1-2 investment properties, and actively invest in the stock market with existing funds in personal + SMSF accounts and have returns of 15%+.



Trading methodology: I am a discretionary trader that uses a combination of both FA/TA. I like to go through P&L Statements, Cash flows, balance sheets etc. Also I like to review charts and see trends for a bit of TA. I have to say that I am a risk taker and am willing to take higher risks for higher returns. I normally trade small caps – mid caps (some blue chips). I avoid all resource stocks now... micro caps and any stocks with low volume/liquidity. I also trade in the short-medium term (1 month holding period - 2 years)



Background: I first started trading in mid 2008 during the GFC. I lost circa $80k, I also ventured into CFDs and lost circa $50k. I have been heavily burnt on resources iron ore/oil/gas over the last few years (if I did not my current portfolio would be double of what it is currently… I learnt many valuable and expensive mistakes over the last 7 years.



Trading tools: CMC Stockbroking for ASX trades, Comsec for research/charting, Sharesight for portfolio management. Financial review for business and market news.





That’s all for now folks its late, and I will update my recent trades and current portfolio this weekend.



I will also update/document all my trades with some feedback/reasoning, post monthly updates of portfolio and general feedback for discussion.





Thanks for taking the time to read and if you have any questions please fire away. All feedback/criticism is welcomed.





Cheers,

leyy




FxPro Quant Strategy Builder

Dear Members,



We are pleased to announce the launch of the FxPro Quant, an online tool for building MT4 EAs and cTrader Robots using a simple drag-and-drop visual technology, which is free to use for everyone, not just the clients of FxPro.



http://ift.tt/1AntNVd



We invite you to take a look at the platform, and let me know if you have any questions regarding this tool.



Kind regards,



FxPro Team




Binary options

Hello All,

I've currently being trading the basic covered call strategy for the last 2 year this is my first venture into the stock market.

I've being looking at Binery options to try and expand my bag of tricks. (it's pretty small) (the bag I mean)

I've being in contact with NGC group in Brisbane (netgain Capital)

they offer a service of giving you a text MSG when and where to place the trade.

they use the platform Binery.com

has anyone used this service or Binery.com before?

thanks for your help everyone.




FxPro Discussion

Dear Members,



We are pleased to start this FxPro Discussion thread. To begin with, I would like to announce the launch of the new FxPro Quant portal, an online tool for MT4 EA and cTrader Robot building.



Please see the Press Release below:



FxPro Quant - Revolutionising Automated Trading



19th February 2015, London. Employing an easy to use drag and drop interface, FxPro’s revolutionary Quant Strategy Builder allows its users to create their own auto-trading strategies by visualising how technical indicators, logical functions and mathematical operators interact with each other. In this way complex trading algorithms can be created without the use of a coding language. The company’s all new version includes a number of significant improvements, as well as being made freely available to all, underlining that FxPro is always on the side of their clients.



“Quant has been very well received by traders and this new version promises to deliver even more functionality. Aside from an updated design, we have added tabs that allow you to work on more than one strategy at a time, search and zoom functions, link colours, and now your Quant strategies can be saved as both MT4 EAs and cTrader robots. All of these features are freely available to all traders from our new FxPro Quant portal, whether they have an account with FxPro or not. We are so confident in the quality of our trading tools that we are happy to make them available to everyone.”

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mercredi 18 février 2015

What is the use of leverage in index trading?

after all, you trading based on margin, 1% of the open value.




How to compute the margin?

Example, Greece 20,



the rate is 252

2000 contract.

after leverage-

the value is =A$75410

The margin is A$1508



-------------------------------

The margin is A$1508,

so the open is A$1508 X100 = A$150,800?

and the leverage must be 2?



the rate is 252,

so one point = AUD$0.3?




What is the exposure of US SPX500 Cash?

which indexes has the lowest exposure?




When a Good Strategy Is Losing Money – Part 1

“But in the market any price is always history. It’s the price of the last transaction, holding no guarantee for even the nearest future.” – Dirk Vandycke



What do you do when a good trading system, whose historical results have been satisfactory, gets into a losing streak? Good strategies lose now and then, and then gain now and then. Losing streaks are alternated by winning streaks, and what you can do is to minimize your losses in losing periods, controlling the drawdowns on your accounts. This is done so that your capital would be intact when a winning period comes around. This is a reality of trading as there’s no way around that. Yet, it doesn’t preclude you from being consistently profitable in spite of occasional drawdowns.



People who’re rational in other fields tend to be irrational when trading. They don’t know that trading is just any other business in life. There’s no strategy on earth (and there’ll never be a strategy on earth) which doesn’t experience drawdowns. No matter what trading approach you’ve adopted, there’ll be periods when the price actions are against you.



We’re happy when we make money, without giving any thoughts to how we control our emotions when we lose. We’re able to remain calm during losing streaks, providing that we’re willing to do that. Let’s think about a system that wins about 65% of the time. That means we may have about 35 losing trades out of 100. When you buy such a system, you can lose the first 10 or 20 trades (or even more) in a row. Then you conclude that the system is trash. You don’t know that the system would soon start winning many trades in a row.



Trading has to with probabilities and profits are analyzed over a long period of time – not over a short period of time. When about 100 trades are analyzed, then you’d see the merit of a good strategy. Trading should be treated like an enterprise: losses being the cost of running the enterprise and profits being the reward you gain from your venture.



Our society is rife with perfectionism tendency, and that’s why there are many people who criticize everything, expecting too much of other people while they themselves aren’t perfect. Those who do well in life are probably correct less than half of the time, yet, mistakes are often ridiculed. Perfectionism has no place in profitable market speculation. You got to know that one needs to stick to a positive expectancy system even in a period of losses, for it’ll soon be in a winning period. However, most people dump such a system and look for another fool-proof one. The truth, however, is that another ‘fool-proof’ system that has good results in the past would also experience drawdowns. Would you then dump such a system again? You might trash the new system and look for another one.



For you to be called a super trader, you got to stick to a good strategy throughout its vicissitudes. Profitable speculation in the market needs perseverance, rules, and determination. You get rich slowly, not quickly. Success comes at cost – it requires effort and doggedness. Keep a log of your trades and look for ways to optimize the system.



Should you disagree with this, you may want to go from one trading method to another, for life. Otherwise, you may want to master a good trading method and stick to it for life. Should you prefer the latter, you may eventually reach financial freedom. A good system makes money eventually, but you’ll need to be faithful to it, which is something that irrational trades don’t want to do.



You make money when a market moves. A fast-moving market like Forex is ideal, since you make money when the move is in your favor. But you don’t make money when then move is against you. Please take risk and money management seriously. This is your life insurance in the markets. All traders experience negativity, but good traders deal with negativity triumphantly. You need to risk only 1%, or better, less per trade. You need to make sure that you don’t go down less than 4% or 5% in total. When the position sizes are too big, it would be difficult to control emotions.



The most important thing in trading is not to lose one’s capital. We trade not to lose, and that’s the only way to prepare for slow and steady growth when the time comes. Only effective risk managers can survive in the markets indefinitely.



We learn much more from losing trades, and we learn very little from profitable trades. Therefore, it’s what we learn from losing trades that make us better traders. In other words, loses are the catalyst that enables us to hone our trading skills.



This article is ended by the quote below:



“Without a plan and money management the best setups in the world are useless.” – Dave Landry




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Currency Strength Pair Distortion Analysis

What I'd like to discuss is calculation of an

Over-Bought and Over-Sold index for each

of 28 major Currency Pairs. I've done this

work about a year ago and it's a practical guide

for short term scalping.



Most of the attempts to do this use "lame"

Moving Averages. But I've used the "internals"

of Currency Strength analytics to yield a reliable

over-bought / over-sold / neutral continuous

index.



If we have a "reliable" index, then we will generally

"fade" the index value above a given threshold of

"distortion" (either positive or negative). I'll just

discuss in general how the calculation or estimate

is derived.



Over-Bought Currency Pairs will be taken Short and

Over-Sold Currency Pairs Long. The rationale for this

is that we are looking at a "distortion" of the particular

Currency Pair, as against its "Fair Value" or expected

value.



We expect this distortion to be resolved in the short

term so this can be used for short term scalping. I'll

follow up with more.



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I have an Etrade account but want to trade NYSE

I have an etrade account but want to buy some NYSE shares, I know about etrade global shares but its $59 per trade which seems steep. What is the best way forward for me?



Thanks.




El GBP/USD de nuevo en máximos de más de 1 mes tras los datos de Reino Unido

Buen día;



La libra ganó posiciones con respecto al dólar este miércoles, aproximándose de nuevo a máximos de más de un mes, impulsada por los alentadores datos sobre empleo del Reino Unido mientras que la demanda de billete verde seguía debilitada.



El par GBP/USD alcanzó el nivel de 1,5426 durante la mañana de la jornada de negociación en Europa, máximos de la sesión; posteriormente, el par se consolidó en 1,5426, avanzando un 0,49%.



Era posible que el cruce encontrara un soporte en 1,5313, el mínimo del martes, y una resistencia en 1,5586, el máximo alcanzado el 2 de enero.



Buen Trading.




Señales de venta en el par EURJPY en repuntes del precio al alza

Buenas Tardes:



Desde que el par cotizó cerca del mínimo de 18 meses este año en enero en zonas de 130,15, las compras en el euro/yen (EURJPY) han mejorado el sentimiento del par.



No obstante, la negociación de la semana pasada vio al sentimiento sin cambios con los precios por debajo del 38% de la recuperación de las pérdidas desde los máximos de 6 años vistos en diciembre y los indicadores de momentum debilitados.



El mercado está cotizando además un "death cross", donde los cruces de las medias de corto plazo por debajo de las de largo plazo, en este caso la media móvil de 50 se sitúa por debajo de la de 100 y hacia la media de 200 sesiones. Esto es negativo para el sentimiento y apunta a vender en repuntes.

Parámetros de la estrategia:



Entrada: Podemos entrar o bien en niveles de 136,21, máximo de ayer con stop en zonas de 136,72, el máximo de la semana pasada o bien, vender en zonas de 135,10, el 50% del pullback hacia las ganancias de ayer, con stop en zonas de 135,55.



Stop:136,72 y 135,55.



Objetivos: 134,41, mínimo visto en la sesión europea de ayer y zonas de 131,98



Saludos :eek:




mardi 17 février 2015

Frustration and the trading spiral

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nabtrade Cash and Margin accounts

I have a nabtrade cash trading account that I opened a few years ago but never used as I did all of my trading through Interactive Brokers. I have recently opened a nabtrade margin trading account as I am becoming frustrated waiting for IB to reactivate margin for individuals.



I now have 2 nabtrade accounts, one cash and one margin.



I have been trying to figure out if there is any advantage to keeping the cash account open because as far as I can see there is nothing I can do with it that couldn't be done with the margin account? I can operate the margin account without ever buying on margin or paying margin interest, should I decide to deposit sufficient funds prior to settlement, which is how the cash account works anyway. And even if I have already drawn down on my margin and now want to purchase a stock for cash, I can still do that by again depositing sufficient funds prior to settlement.



I know there are some administrative differences between both accounts (i.e. how you get funds into the account), but apart from that is there any advantage to maintaining the cash account in addition the the margin? I am thinking along the lines of tax related issues - separation of stocks for instance - but I fail to see what difference that makes.




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USD/CAD: podría extender la corrección del corto plazo si pierde el nivel de los 1,23

Buen día;



El USD/CAD se encuentra tomándose un respiro en su imparable escalada alcista. Los descensos de hoy martes están acercando su cotización a las inmediaciones del soporte de los 1,2352, niveles que no perderemos de vista. Si al final confirma el abandono de este nivel de precios podríamos volver a ver una continuación de los descensos hasta las inmediaciones de los 1,20. A medio y largo plazo sus perspectivas técnicas son impecables y lo más normal es que acabemos viendo una continuación de las subidas hasta el nivel de los 1,30.



Buen Trading.




USD/JPY: Intenta recuperar sesgo alcista pero SSI acentúa su oposición

Buenas Tardes:



El dólar norteamericano incita a los toros para que reboten en contra del yen en un soporte importante en los 118.18. A corto plazo, el precio tiene una resistencia en los 118.77 que coincide con la MVA 50 y línea de tendencia del triángulo anterior, de consolidar un cierre diario por encima de este nivel estimularía para que el precio vaya a buscar los máximos recientes del 11 de febrero en torno a los 120.47. Alternativamente, el precio podría romper su soporte y buscar el canal anterior de cual se ha tratado de desprender recientemente.



Técnicamente el instrumento se encuentra en sesgo alcista y debería estar dispuesto a buscar los niveles superiores mencionados anteriormente. Sin embargo, los volúmenes, el SSI y el OBV no están acompañando en esta misión al dólar. Llama la atención que muestran preferencias por la dirección contraria.



Saludos :eek:




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Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

Key Highlights

• Euro moved lower against most major currencies surrounding all drama in the Euro area because of Greece situation.

• German and Euro area ZEW Economic sentiment will be released today, which is likely to impact the Euro pairs in the near term.

• Reserve bank of Australia released meeting minutes earlier today which caused swing moves in the Aussie dollar.



German ZEW Economic Sentiment

The Euro struggled during the past couple of hours against the US dollar and traded lower towards the 1.1300 support area. There was no major release lined up in the Euro area recently, but there is a critical event scheduled during the London session today. The German and Euro area ZEW Economic sentiment will be published. The forecast is of a gain in February 2015 from 48.4 to 55.0 for German ZEW Economic sentiment. The Euro ZEW Economic sentiment is also expected to register an increase from the last reading of 45.2 to 51.3.



Technical Analysis

The Euro collapsed earlier during the Asian session against the US dollar and traded towards the 1.1300 support area. There was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart, which was broken recently, and ignited a downside reaction in EURUSD. Moreover, the pair is now trading below the 100 and 200 hour MA’s, which is a negative sign in the near term.



If the pair moves higher from here, then both MA’s might act as a resistance, followed by the broken trend line. The 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.1427 high to 1.1317 low is also around the same area. So, in short there is a major resistance forming around the 1.1380 level.



-------------------------------------------

Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'




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Как стать управляющим крупной суммы через две недели?!

Давно известна практика для трейдеров фондовых рынков, когда можно оплатить небольшой взнос, показать на практике свои навыки и в короткие сроки получить большую сумму в управление.



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lundi 16 février 2015

Holding AUD: Missed the boat?

Hey guys, just wondering whats the general opinions on holding Australian $? I have held quite a large amount in a term deposit but I am starting to worry if the AU goes down to 0.60/US. I also didn't want to put everything into say equities because I already have 35% of my portfolio in equities.

Any opinions and suggestions?

Thanks in advance.




LOST INVESTMENT MONEY? 10 PRACTICAL TIPS TO GETTING IT BACK

Many investors lose money through their financial planner, investment advisor, stock broker, fund manager, superannuation fund, bank or some other financial services provider. But despite legal mechanisms being available to help them recoup their losses, experience has shown that a significant portion of those investors either do not know how to make a claim, or are discouraged from proceeding because they do not fully understand their legal rights.



Worse still, there are the silent masses who have suffered investment losses, but who do not even realise that they actually have a legal entitlement to be compensated for those losses (often fooled by the mantra that “market downturn” were solely to blame). Ignorance of the law, in this instance, has proven to be quite costly those for those poor individuals.



Having worked as a Corporate Lawyer in the financial services industry for many years, I have personally observed these anomalies first hand. And while I have typically done so from the vantage point of a so-called “hired gun” protecting the financial institutions involved, it has always deeply troubled me to see individual investors missing the opportunity to recoup their hard-earned money simply because they did not fully understand the law, or the financial services industry.



If only they had “inside knowledge”!



Well, this is where this post comes in (hopefully). My aim here is to help change the sad state of affairs by educating some of our fellow investors on their legal position. There is obviously only so much you can write in this forum, but there should be enough here to be useful to a few people:



Tip #1. The laws in Australia are actually stacked heavily in favour of investors, as opposed to financial institutions. Those laws were often drafted with a view to protecting the interests of investors from unscrupulous or incompetent operators (of which there will never be a shortage). The real trick really is in knowing when and how your legal rights have been violated. Many investors will not bother seeking legal advice about their situation because they think they “already know” their rights – but chances are, you don’t because financial services laws are quite complicated. So avoid “self-medication” and leave it for an experienced lawyer to assess your true legal position. You will probably find that you have a lot more options than you realise.



Tip #2. Don’t believe the “personal accountability” hype. Many well-meaning people will tell you that you only have yourself to blame if your investments go down south. This is often dangerous advice. In this day and age, it is only reasonable to rely on advice from experts because the investment process has become quite complex. For example, investing in a managed fund might seem like a straightforward affair, but the reality is that the process actually requires the collective expertise of many investment professionals, such as portfolio managers, industry analysts, stock analysts, investment researchers and financial planners. If only one of those professionals neglected to do their job properly, then your “simple” manage fund can easily become a dud investment through no fault of your own.



Tip #3. Don’t be afraid to take anyone on: the size or reputation of a financial institution does not guarantee that they will do the right thing by you, or that they will not lose your money. Contrary to what they will have you believe, large financial institutions are just as prone to making mistakes as the small operators. The list of companies that provided Enforceable Undertakings to ASIC in the last couple of years alone include such venerated institutions as Commonwealth Securities Limited (CommSec), National Australia Bank, The Royal Bank of Scotland, BNP Paribas, UBS AG and Macquarie Equities Limited.



Tip #4. Don’t fall for the “market downturn is to blame” propaganda. This might be true to a certain extent, but oftentimes this is just the story sold to you as an investor to avoid your realising that there were actually other compensable reasons why your investments have declined. Your financial advisor might have incorrectly assessed your risk profile, failed to properly determine your needs and objectives, or made inappropriate recommendations. The fund manager might have invested outside their portfolio construction or asset allocation guidelines. The research analyst might have failed to conduct proper investment research on the underlying stocks. The company whose stocks you purchased might have misrepresented its financial position. These sorts of scenarios should be fully explored before resigning yourself to the supposed fact that you have no right to claim compensation.



Tip #5. Conflicts of interest are more widespread in the financial services industry than people think. That this is so is evidenced by the fact that most financial institutions are actually prohibited by the Corporations Act 2001 from using words such as “independent”, “impartial” or “unbiased”. Financial planners who receive commissions or bonuses for recommending certain products will invariably be incentivised to recommend only those products, even if there are others out there that are more appropriate for you. The same goes for mortgage brokers, insurance brokers, banks and other product-selling institutions. This leaves them all prone to making inappropriate decisions. Once you understand how your financial services provider is remunerated, you will then be able to better assess whether or not their recommendations have been unduly swayed to suit their own interest, rather than your best interest.



Tip #6. Self-representation is a fool’s game. For sure you can avoid legal costs by lodging your own complaint with the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS) or the Credit Ombudsman Service Limited (COSL). But is it really wise to risk losing tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars for the sake of saving a few thousand on legal costs? A lawyer who specialises in your area of concern might indeed cost money, but if they are worth their salt, they will significantly increase your prospects of success. They will also likely recoup for you far more money than it costs to hire them (and in that sense, their services then actually become free). We have seen far too many “mum and dad” investors lose in their compensation case before FOS or COSL, not because they did not have a valid claim, but simply because they did not know how to prepare and structure their cases properly. Financial institutions will often defend themselves through subtle intimidation and obfuscation, so you will need to know how to get past all that and identify their Achilles heel (this requires an in-depth understanding of how the industry works).



Tip #7. Involve your lawyer right from the beginning. Don’t make the mistake of trying to negotiate your claim yourself first, and only hiring a lawyer if the attempt is unsuccessful or the situation proves to be too difficult for you to handle. You are only doing yourself a great disservice because, more often than not, you are probably not putting your best (legal) foot forward in doing so. Even worse, your lawyer may also be prevented from exploring other potential grounds for compensation if you have unwittingly limited the scope of your claim at an early stage. You only have one shot at this so give yourself every advantage at your disposal. Keep in mind that your end goal is to recover your money, and not to minimise costs.



Tip #8. Making a compensation claim does not have to cost you the proverbial “arm and a leg”, so don’t let the prospect of a hefty legal bill put you off. There are actually many law firms out there who will be prepared to act for you on a “no win, no pay” basis if your case is strong enough. This means that the law firm bears the lion’s share of the financial risk if your claim was to be unsuccessful. You just need to make sure that they do actually have the expertise or experience in the subject matter of your claim, even within the financial services industry. For example, a lawyer who has considerable experience in superannuation disputes will not necessarily have experience in banking, financial planning or insurance disputes. You should generally prefer those who have experience acting for both the institutions and the individual investors.



Tip #9. Don’t let the 6-year time limitation rule put you off. We have seen quite a lot of people discouraged from making a claim because they incorrectly thought that their claim was statute-barred. The calculation of the 6-year time limitation period is not as simple and straight forward as non-lawyers might think. There is case law which suggests, for instance, that the limitation period for a loss of superannuation claim does not even begin to run until the investor becomes legally eligible to access their superannuation benefits (ie. retirement age). So leave it for the professionals to let you know whether or not your claim can still be pursued.



Tip #10. If the prospect of having to go to a trial scares you, then you should understand that the great majority of cases do not actually go to a trial. They generally settle out-of-court. Of course, you won’t hear about that because they normally end up being resolved on the basis that the parties keep the terms of settlement confidential. So unless you are being completely unrealistic about your prospects of success or as to the size of your claim – and your trusted lawyer will definitely tell you if this is the case - then there should be no reason why the parties to a dispute cannot reach a compromise instead of going to court. It usually works out better for both parties to do so. You need to understand that financial institutions are just as reluctant to go to trial as you are – perhaps even more so, because the reputational risks for them are usually much higher (win or lose).



Hope this helps!




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