I made a comment on Monday about the way I expected the markets to react based on experience,
So with another comment I made here,
I thought I would hold myself to the same scrutiny that I was dumping on the H&S and technical analysis guys and test it.
I grabbed the index data for XJO, HSI, Nikkei, Dax, FTSE and S&P500.
I tested each index over the last 10 years. What I was looking for was the return by the close 5 days later (Being Friday if there was no hols) if Monday fell more than 1% lower than the previous Fridays close.
Then compared that to the 5 day return after any day except Monday were we get greater than 1% fall. The reason for the comparison is to see if there is any particular edge buying Monday drops compared to other days.
Screen Shot 09-26-14 at 04.34 PM 001.PNGScreen Shot 09-26-14 at 04.34 PM.PNGScreen Shot 09-26-14 at 04.35 PM 001.PNGScreen Shot 09-26-14 at 04.35 PM 002.PNGScreen Shot 09-26-14 at 04.35 PM.PNG
Results? Seems legit except for the Aussie market :cool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trembling Hand 
Nasty Monday,
They normally fail to follow through. I think I've said it a few 100 times mostly they are a buy but when they do keep on going they make for really bad weeks ahead.
They normally fail to follow through. I think I've said it a few 100 times mostly they are a buy but when they do keep on going they make for really bad weeks ahead.
So with another comment I made here,
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trembling Hand
TA doesn't work. Test it.
I thought I would hold myself to the same scrutiny that I was dumping on the H&S and technical analysis guys and test it.
I grabbed the index data for XJO, HSI, Nikkei, Dax, FTSE and S&P500.
I tested each index over the last 10 years. What I was looking for was the return by the close 5 days later (Being Friday if there was no hols) if Monday fell more than 1% lower than the previous Fridays close.
Then compared that to the 5 day return after any day except Monday were we get greater than 1% fall. The reason for the comparison is to see if there is any particular edge buying Monday drops compared to other days.
Screen Shot 09-26-14 at 04.34 PM 001.PNGScreen Shot 09-26-14 at 04.34 PM.PNGScreen Shot 09-26-14 at 04.35 PM 001.PNGScreen Shot 09-26-14 at 04.35 PM 002.PNGScreen Shot 09-26-14 at 04.35 PM.PNG
Results? Seems legit except for the Aussie market :cool:
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