For context, I come from a DOM/tape watching perspective. I've been looking in to how options work recently and have been watching a lot of the tastytrade material. From what I can work out, the crux of their argument is that writing OTM options have a high probability of profit (POP).
I've watched quite a few videos, but I haven't yet heard the guys discuss the expected value with relation to high POP. In other words, my POP can be less than 50% but if my win value is large enough I can still be profitable. Likewise, I could win 90% of the time but my losses could be so large that I wipe out my profit. Is anyone able to clarify for me the expected value in relation to writing options the tastytrade way?
I've watched quite a few videos, but I haven't yet heard the guys discuss the expected value with relation to high POP. In other words, my POP can be less than 50% but if my win value is large enough I can still be profitable. Likewise, I could win 90% of the time but my losses could be so large that I wipe out my profit. Is anyone able to clarify for me the expected value in relation to writing options the tastytrade way?
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