Hi guys, I want this thread to be ASX limited so no international tickers please - that can be in another post :)
Basically, there is an increasingly large number of indicators pointing towards the next market correction occurring within the next 24 months. I don't want to discuss IF the crash will occur, but rather the companies that would become attractive if it did. Think the Commonwealth Bank in Jan 2009, when it was $27
I'm putting together my own list of about 10-20 (max) companies that I would consider, and I will continue to update this thread as I flesh this out. The criteria that ill be using (and if you want to contribute I suggest a similar approach so we are comparing apples with apples) are as follows:
1 - Entrenched in Australia. Essentially a large enough company with a proven track record for surviving crashes (probably using the 2000 and 2008/9 crashes for this)
2 - Strong demand for services in 10 years time. Essentially a company that isn't dealing in tulips :)
3 - Large Domestic and/or Foreign customer base. Essentially enough customers around the place that would continue to require services even during an economic downturn.
4 - Simple enough. Essentially a business that is easy to understand (in principal) and one that the economy requires to operate at a minimum (e.g. banks, utilities, retail).
Note, this is meant to be a simple sanity check - IF a crash happens then proper analysis will still have to be done, but this would allow us to be 1 or 2 steps ahead of others.
If you think that more criteria is required please shout out :)
Finally if you're game include a price that you would realistically be looking to pick it up for.
Ill start us off:
CBA.
1 - Wasn't really effected by the 2000 crash, doing very well after 2008/9
2 - Is Australia's largest bank and little reason to suspect this will change anytime soon + if it does, it would still be in the top 4
3 - Many domestic customers...not sure on foreign however
4 - Simple to understand and required by the economy
Would aim to pick it up between $20-$30
CSL.
1 - Wasn't really effected by the 2000 crash, stagnated for a few years after the 2008/9 but doing really well at the moment
2 - successful Multi-national company dealing in health products - a sector that is forecasted to see huge demand as more and more middleclass are created around the world
3 - Healthy numbers of local and foreign customers
4 - A bit complex to understand, however is entrenched in the industry and underpins a potential knowledge sector of a 'knowledge economy' that Australia is moving towards.
Would aim to pick it up between $25-$35. $40 at a pinch.
Basically, there is an increasingly large number of indicators pointing towards the next market correction occurring within the next 24 months. I don't want to discuss IF the crash will occur, but rather the companies that would become attractive if it did. Think the Commonwealth Bank in Jan 2009, when it was $27
I'm putting together my own list of about 10-20 (max) companies that I would consider, and I will continue to update this thread as I flesh this out. The criteria that ill be using (and if you want to contribute I suggest a similar approach so we are comparing apples with apples) are as follows:
1 - Entrenched in Australia. Essentially a large enough company with a proven track record for surviving crashes (probably using the 2000 and 2008/9 crashes for this)
2 - Strong demand for services in 10 years time. Essentially a company that isn't dealing in tulips :)
3 - Large Domestic and/or Foreign customer base. Essentially enough customers around the place that would continue to require services even during an economic downturn.
4 - Simple enough. Essentially a business that is easy to understand (in principal) and one that the economy requires to operate at a minimum (e.g. banks, utilities, retail).
Note, this is meant to be a simple sanity check - IF a crash happens then proper analysis will still have to be done, but this would allow us to be 1 or 2 steps ahead of others.
If you think that more criteria is required please shout out :)
Finally if you're game include a price that you would realistically be looking to pick it up for.
Ill start us off:
CBA.
1 - Wasn't really effected by the 2000 crash, doing very well after 2008/9
2 - Is Australia's largest bank and little reason to suspect this will change anytime soon + if it does, it would still be in the top 4
3 - Many domestic customers...not sure on foreign however
4 - Simple to understand and required by the economy
Would aim to pick it up between $20-$30
CSL.
1 - Wasn't really effected by the 2000 crash, stagnated for a few years after the 2008/9 but doing really well at the moment
2 - successful Multi-national company dealing in health products - a sector that is forecasted to see huge demand as more and more middleclass are created around the world
3 - Healthy numbers of local and foreign customers
4 - A bit complex to understand, however is entrenched in the industry and underpins a potential knowledge sector of a 'knowledge economy' that Australia is moving towards.
Would aim to pick it up between $25-$35. $40 at a pinch.
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